Euro 2008 Preview: Group C, France vs Italy

France

vs

Italy

Tuesday, June 17, 2045 CET
Zurich (Switzerland) – Travel to Zurich

THE BIG PICTURE

They said it was the Group of Death, but wow. Definitely one and possibly both of the World Cup 2006 finalists are going out today. The mathematics involved are frankly mind-boggling. But basically both these teams need to win this game and hope Romania don’t get any points against Netherlands.

Full explanation of the situation in Group C after the jump.

Here’s how the BBC explain it:

The Netherlands have won Group C and will play the Group D runners-up in the quarter-finals.

Romania will qualify for the quarter-finals if they beat the Netherlands, eliminating France and Italy.

If Romania fail to beat the Netherlands, the winner of France v Italy will go through.

If France and Italy draw, a point against the Netherlands would be enough to send Romania through. France must win to have any chance of qualifying.

If France and Italy share a score draw (1-1, 2-2, 3-3 etc), Italy will go through if Romania lose (by any score). In this scenario, Italy, Romania and France will be level on two points each but Italy would have scored more goals in games between the 3 teams.

Romania will finish bottom of the group if they lose and France and Italy draw 2-2, 3-3 or 4-4. France will finish bottom if they draw 1-1 unless Romania lose 3-0 or by a four-goal margin.

If France and Italy draw 0-0, Romania can lose by one goal, two goals or by a three-goal margin other than 3-0 but still qualify. In this scenario, Italy and Romania would have identical head-to-head records, but Romania would have better goal difference in ALL group matches or, in the case of the three-goal defeats, goals scored. France would finish bottom, having scored fewer goals head-to-head v Italy and Romania.

If Romania lose 3-0 to the Dutch, Italy would qualify with a 0-0 draw against France because of their superior coefficient points. France would finish bottom as they would have scored fewer goals head-to-head v Italy and Romania.

If Romania lose by four goals or more and the other game ends 0-0, Italy would proceed with a better overall goal difference than Romania. France would finish bottom as they would have scored fewer goals head-to-head v Italy and Romania.

If France and Italy draw AND Romania avoid defeat, then Romania go through. France and Italy will have identical records and a unprecedented penalty shoot-out will decide who finishes third and fourth.

Glad that’s nice and straightforward then. And how depressing would a penalty shoot out for third place be? If you answered “very” then you are correct.

FRANCE

Team News:Patrick Vieira, erstwhile captain, is out for the game without having played a second of Euros. He came in with an on–and-off thigh injury, and it was bad enough that Raymond Domenech brought in Mathieu Flamini to training, just in case. But in the end Vieira was on the final roster and Flamini was sent home. Bad choice.

Expect a number of changes to the starting XI from Friday’s game. In particular, Florent Malouda and Willy Sagnol may be benched, perhaps for Samir Nasri and Francois Clerc. And goalkeeper Gregory Coupet, who let in four goals from the Dutch, could be replaced by Sebastien Frey, who has experience against the Italians.

Three Key Players:

(from France WCB Laurie)

Franck Ribery was one of the few bright spots in Friday’s game against Netherlands. If somebody can finish what he starts, France could have a chance.

Karim Benzema didn’t play on Friday, even as a sub. Domenech took a lot of criticism for that decision, so there’s a high likelihood that Benzema will come on at some point tonight. He’s looked tired and worn down in his past few games after a grueling season at Lyon, but he’s a very driven and motivated player. Perhaps being “rested” on Friday will leave him inspired?

Claude Makelele will be the wild card in this game. He generally doesn’t go forward, as Domenech prefers two defensive midfielders. But in Friday’s game, after the team took heat for being too passive against Romania, he actually took a couple of shots and made some forays into the box. Will that happen again? And will he be able to check his natural predisposition to somewhat thuggish behavior? And if not, how will that affect the match?

France squad
France Team Profile

Visit Laurie, Inara and Jeff at the France Euro 2008 Team Blog for more.

Buy France team gear here.

ITALY

Team News: Well, doesn’t get much bigger than this. While Roberto Donadoni is technically still in charge, rumour has it that Marcello Lippi is already lined up as Donadoni’s replacement. I’m sure more than one Italy fan wishes Lippi could start work today. Or maybe last week.

Three Key Players:

(from Italy WCB Chris)

Andrea Pirlo - There’s an utterly idiotic rumor floating around that Pirlo may be dropped. It makes no sense, until you look at the coach’s box. If he plays, the offense will flow through him. If not, don’t even bother watching. Game over.

Gigi Buffon - As he did with Romania and so often in the past, when the Azzurri need saving, he’s typically the one to do it – literally. There is no one you’d rather have between your sticks, and they may need him to save the day once again. Unless….

Fabio Grosso - The national hero. Can he recreate Dortmund?

Italy squad
Italy Team Profile

Visit Chris, Marco and Ricci at the Italy Euro 2008 Team Blog for more.

Buy Italy national team gear here

BIG BATTLES

We’re not really sure what either coach is going to do, so any or all of the following matchups could actually fail to happen. Still, here’s some semi-informed speculation anyway:

Luca Toni v Old Man Thuram Thuram’s had a rough Euro 2008 thus far, and a battle with Luca Toni is probably low on the list of things he needs right now. But you never know, the old centre back could roll back the years for one last big performance.

Donadoni vs Domenech Both men have made some odd decision and now one of them is going to pay for it. It might be whoever makes the least odd decisions today.

Franck Ribery vs Gianluca Zambrotta Ribery is arguably France’s most creative player and Zambrotta is arguably Italy’s weakest defensive link.

Bet on Euro 2008

LIVEBLOG

Because they’re both unashamedly biased it would be unfair for either Chris or Laurie to LiveBlog this game. So we’ve got a bit of a LiveBlog special lined up.

I’m technically doing the LiveBlog, but I’ll have a Skype chat window open with both Laurie and Chris, where they’ll LiveBlog the game and I’ll cut and paste reactions from both. That way both France and Italy fans are represented.

Follow the Laurie vs Chris France vs Italy LiveBlog here.