Euro 2008 Semifinal Preview: Germany vs. Turkey

On paper, this matchup should be a blowout.

Shouldn’t even be close.

Up front, Germany has strikers like Miroslav Klose. And Lukas Podolski, if he starts up top instead of Mario Gomez. On the other side, Turkey’s star striker, Nihat Kahveci, is out of the tournament after getting injured in the Croatia game.

In the midfield, Germany has Michael Ballack, who is, according to oddsmakers, the favorite for the Player of the Tournament award. And Torsten Frings may be back from injury. And Bastian Schweinsteiger will be adding his own brand of versatility and volatility. On the other side, Turkey has lost the energy and creativity of Tuncay Sanli to a double yellow, and will probably be missing captain Emre Belözoğlu due to injury.

In the back, Germany has fullbacks like the talented Philip Lahm, who’s having a great tournament. And Per Mertesacker and Christoph Metzelder at the center have been mostly solid and consistent for the majority of the tournament. (With a few little oopsies here and there, particularly in the Croatia game.) Turkey, on the other hand, will be missing the skills of Emre Güngör (calf injury) and Emre Aşık (suspension.)

In goal, Turkey has an older, second-string goalkeeper, Rustu Recber, a team legend who is perhaps a little rusty. And Germany has Jens Lehmann.

Well, okay, that matchup is probably pretty close. Maybe even the edge to Turkey.

On balance, though, this game should go Germany’s way. But hardly anybody is willing to write off the Turks. Not after three miraculous comebacks in the last three games. And yet it’s hard to ignore all those injuries and suspensions. From Daryl’s earlier post, here’s what Turkey is facing:

Definitely out:

Volkan Demirel - Goalkeeper, suspended after wacky attack on Jan Koller

Emre Aşık - Defender, suspended after picking up two yellows

Tuncay Sanli - Creative attacking mid, suspended after two yellows

Arda Turan - Young winger who’s scored twice so far. Suspended after two yellows

Nihat Kahveci - Striker (pictured) out of tournament with injury. Left Swissaustria and flown back to Turkey for an operation on his thigh.

Emre Güngör - Defender, tournament over after calf injury.

Probably out:

Servet Cetin - Big defender, very doubtful with hip and knee problems.

Tümer Metin - Left winger, has a groin injury.

Emre Belözoğlu - Centre mid and captain, injured hamstring in opening game but back in light training.

Germany isn’t facing any suspensions, and the only real question mark in the lineup is whether or not midfielder Frings will have recovered enough from a fractured rib to play. Most reports are predicting he’ll be on the field.

But Turkey isn’t entirely without resources. Semih Senturk has shown that he can put away goals at critical times; he scored the equalizer against Switzerland, and then he equalized again in the quarterfinals against Croatia with that last-gasp, 122nd-minute miracle strike. And Mehmet Aurelio will be back from suspension and working to win the battle of the midfield. And goalkeeper Recber may have surrendered his starting position to Volkan Demirel before the tournament, but with Demirel suspended, Recber’s maturity and experience got the job done against Croatia. He was good in the game, and great in the penalty shootout. And Gorkan Zan and Hamit Altintop are still there, too, holding down the fort in the back.

In short, if I were a betting person, I’d probaby have to put my money on Germany. But I’d stick a few bucks on Turkey, too. Because they’ve already shown that when they’re on the field, anything can happen.

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